Forecaster Dale Destin:Good news! At 8 pm, Ernesto is back on a westerly track at 28 mph. Also, it remains very disorganised.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Update
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As of 8:00 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto is located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 58.5 West. The storm is moving westward at approximately 28 mph (44 km/h).
A slight decrease in speed is anticipated, with the storm expected to track westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of days. On this path, Ernesto is forecasted to pass through the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. It is then expected to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are around 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecasted in the coming days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm’s center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
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Ernesto is predicted to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain over parts of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. In Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, the Windward Islands may receive 1 to 4 inches of rain, and eastern Hispaniola may receive 2 to 4 inches through Friday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to impact the Leeward Islands late tonight or early Tuesday, and these conditions will begin affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
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A storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet along Puerto Rico’s eastern coast from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, as well as in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. Similar surges are expected in the British Virgin Islands, likely accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Swells generated by Ernesto may begin affecting portions of the Leeward Islands starting late tonight, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For detailed forecasts and updates, refer to the National Weather Service and relevant local authorities.
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