By William Ysaguirre (Freelance Writer)

BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Oct. 23, 2025

   The latest weather advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami of the National Oceanic and Aeronautic Administration (NOAA) still has Tropical Storm Melissa listed as a “tropical storm”, as it is not expected to reach hurricane strength with 75 mile-per-hour winds until Saturday afternoon, October 25.

   The storm is dumping torrential rains on Jamaica’s southern parishes, even though it is still some 200 miles away from the island, which gives an idea of the size of the system. Melissa is meandering slowly northward at a very pedestrian 2 mph.

   NOAA is perhaps the best authority to consult about what Melissa may do next, as they have the resources to send hurricane hunter aircraft of the United States Air Force flying inside the eye of the storm to take readings of humidity, wind velocity and air pressure to best assess how the storm may develop, and when. NOAA is naturally concerned that Melissa may eventually arrive on U.S. shores, so they are monitoring its progress with keen interest.

   The NOAA model predicts she will intensify into a “massive” hurricane with winds exceeding 130 miles per hour sometime early Sunday morning, fueled by the warm water temperatures of the Caribbean Sea that has been absorbing the heat of the sun all summer. Then its track is expected to slowly turn westward, as it skirts Jamaica’s southern coastline without making landfall. NOAA projects the storm’s path to turn from west to slowly West-North-West as it passes Jamaica’s westernmost point at West End Negril.

   NOAA’s projection ends at this point, for Melissa is a force of nature, and no man can determine the will of God! NOAA’s model predicts that the storm’s track will take it slowly northward towards Cuba, where it may arrive in a week’s time. But there’s really no telling if it won’t veer westward on a path that might bring it closer to Yucatan, perhaps missing Cuba as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

   The storm is the first to enter the Caribbean this year, as all previous systems since June 1st have skirted north of the Greater Antilles before veering gradually northward into the Atlantic, without ever making landfall in North America.

   The National Meteorological Service is monitoring the storm’s progress, ready to warn the Belizean populace, should the need arise.